Correction of vaccine effectiveness derived from test-negative case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Determining the vaccine effectiveness (VE) is an important part of studying every new vaccine. Test-negative case-control (TNCC) studies have recently been used to determine the VE. However, the estimated VE derived from a TNCC design depends on the test sensitivity and specificity. Herein, a method for correction of the value of VE derived from a TNCC study is presented. METHODS: An analytical method is presented to compute the corrected VE based on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test utilized. To show the application of the method proposed, a hypothetical TNCC study is presented. In this in silico study, 100 000 individuals referring to a healthcare system for COVID-19-like illness were tested with diagnostic tests with sensitivities of 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0, and specificities ranging from 0.85 to 1.00. A vaccination coverage of 60%, an attack rate of 0.05 for COVID-19 in unvaccinated group, and a true VE of 0.70, were assumed. In this simulation, a COVID-19-like illness with an attack rate of 0.30 could also affect all the studied population regardless of their vaccination status. RESULTS: The observed VE ranged from 0.11 (computed for a test sensitivity of 0.60 and specificity of 0.85) to 0.71 (computed for a test sensitivity and specificity of 1.0). The mean computed corrected VE derived from the proposed method was 0.71 (the standard deviation of 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The observed VE derived from TNCC studies can be corrected easily. An acceptable estimate for VE can be computed regardless of the diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity used in the study.

Malaria and the incidence of COVID-19 in Africa: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: It has been shown that stimulation of innate immunity may provide temporary protection against a variety of infectious diseases. Malaria has been shown to induce a robust innate immune response. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that if the cumulative number of cases diagnosed with COVID-19 per 100,000 population was correlated with the prevalence of malaria in African countries where both malaria and COVID-19 were prevalent. METHODS: In this ecological study, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and the prevalence of malaria were compared in 53 African countries. A negative binomial regression analysis with the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 as the dependent variable, and the human development index (HDI) and the prevalence of malaria, as independent variables, were used. RESULTS: The mean cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 522 cases per 100,000. Each 0.1 unit increase in HDI was associated with 2.4-fold (95% confidence interval 1.8-3.1) increase in the cumulative incidence of COVID-19. Prevalence of malaria was also independently associated with the cumulative incidence; each 10% increase in the prevalence was associated with 28% (10-41%) decrease in the cumulative incidence of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria might protect people against SARS-CoV-2 through the stimulation of innate immunity. Stimulation of the innate immune system could be the first line of defense in the pandemic preparedness arsenal.

On Measuring Vaccine Effectiveness with Observational Study Designs.

Herein, we present a bird's eye view of common observational study designs utilized for measurement of vaccine effectiveness. Assessing vaccines effectiveness is an integral part of vaccine research, particularly for the newly developed vaccines. A cohort study is prospective, directing from an exposure to one or more outcomes. The design is the best method to ascertain the attack rate of an infectious disease. A traditional case-control study is retrospective, directing from a given outcome to one or more exposures. The design cannot provide the relative risk, but it can provide the odds ratio, which is a good estimation of the relative risk when the attack rate is low. Critically depending on laboratory test results and performance, the test-negative case-control study design is another type of observational study commonly used nowadays for the evaluation of the vaccine effectiveness. Comparing to cohort and traditional case-control designs, conducting a test-negative case-control study is relatively cheaper and faster. Herein, we describe each of the above-mentioned study designs through examples generated by a Monte-Carlo simulation program assuming real-world conditions. CONCLUSION: The simulation shows that regardless of the study design employed, the diagnostic test specificity is of utmost importance in providing a valid estimate of the vaccine effectiveness.

Determining the SARS-CoV-2 serological immunoassay test performance indices based on the test results frequency distribution.

Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is known to induce robust antibody response in most of the affected individuals. The objective of the study was to determine if we can harvest the test sensitivity and specificity of a commercial serologic immunoassay merely based on the frequency distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig) G concentrations measured in a population-based seroprevalence study. Materials and methods: The current study was conducted on a subset of a previously published dataset from the canton of Geneva. Data were taken from two non-consecutive weeks (774 samples from May 4-9, and 658 from June 1-6, 2020). Assuming that the frequency distribution of the measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG is binormal (an educated guess), using a non-linear regression, we decomposed the distribution into its two Gaussian components. Based on the obtained regression coefficients, we calculated the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the sensitivity and specificity, and the most appropriate cut-off value for the test. The obtained results were compared with those obtained from a validity study and a seroprevalence population-based study. Results: The model could predict more than 90% of the variance observed in the SARS-CoV-2 IgG distribution. The results derived from our model were in good agreement with the results obtained from the seroprevalence and validity studies. Altogether 138 of 1432 people had SARS-CoV-2 IgG ≥ 0.90, the cut-off value which maximized the Youden's index. This translates into a true prevalence of 7.0% (95% confidence interval 5.4% to 8.6%), which is in keeping with the estimated prevalence of 7.7% derived from our model. Our model can provide the true prevalence. Conclusions: Having an educated guess about the distribution of test results, the test performance indices can be derived with acceptable accuracy merely based on the test results frequency distribution without the need for conducting a validity study and comparing the test results against a gold-standard test.

Use of oral polio vaccine and the incidence of COVID-19 in the world.

BACKGROUND: Several live attenuated vaccines were shown to provide temporary protection against a variety of infectious diseases through stimulation of the host innate immune system. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that countries using oral polio vaccine (OPV) have a lower cumulative number of cases diagnosed with COVID-19 per 100,000 population (CP100K) compared with those using only inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). METHODS: In an ecological study, the CP100K was compared between countries using OPV vs IPV. We used a random-effect meta-analysis technique to estimate the pooled mean for CP100K. We also used negative binomial regression with CP100K as the dependent variable and the human development index (HDI) and the type of vaccine used as independent variables. RESULTS: The pooled estimated mean CP100K was 4970 (95% CI 4030 to 5900) cases per 100,000 population for countries using IPV, significantly (p<0.001) higher than that for countries using OPV-1580 (1190 to 1960). Countries with higher HDI prefer to use IPV; those with lower HDI commonly use OPV. Both HDI and the type of vaccine were independent predictors of CP100K. Use of OPV compared to IPV could independently decrease the CP100K by an average of 30% at the mean HDI of 0.72. CONCLUSIONS: Countries using OPV have a lower incidence of COVID-19 compared to those using IPV. This might suggest that OPV may either prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection at individual level or slow down the transmission at the community level.

COVID-19 Infection Among Women in Iran Exposed vs Unexposed to Children Who Received Attenuated Poliovirus Used in Oral Polio Vaccine.

Importance: Live attenuated vaccines may provide short-term protection against infectious diseases through stimulation of the innate immune system. Objective: To evaluate whether passive exposure to live attenuated poliovirus is associated with diminished symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a longitudinal cohort study involving 87 923 people conducted between March 20 and December 20, 2020, the incidence of COVID-19 was compared between 2 groups of aged-matched women with and without exposure to live attenuated poliovirus in the oral polio vaccine (OPV). Participants were people receiving health care services from the Petroleum Industry Health Organization and residing in 2 cities in Iran (ie, Ahwaz and Shiraz). Participants were women aged 18 to 48 years whose children were aged 18 months or younger and a group of age-matched women from the same residence who had had no potential exposure to OPV. Exposures: Indirect exposure to live attenuated poliovirus in OPV. Main Outcomes and Measures: Symptomatic COVID-19, diagnosed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Results: After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 419 mothers (mean [SD] age, 35.5 [4.9] years) indirectly exposed to the OPV and 3771 age-matched women (mean [SD] age, 35.7 [5.3] years) who had no exposure to OPV were available for analysis. COVID-19 was diagnosed in 1319 of the 87 923 individuals in the study population (151 per 10 000 population) during the study period. None of the mothers whose children received OPV developed COVID-19 after a median follow-up of 141 days (IQR, 92-188 days; range, 1-270 days); 28 women (0.74%; 95% CI, 0.47%-1.02%) in the unexposed group were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the 9 months of the study. Point-by-point comparison of the survival curves of the exposed and unexposed groups found that indirect exposure to OPV was significantly associated with decreased COVID-19 acquisition; probability of remaining without infection was 1.000 (95% CI, 1.000-1.000) in the exposed group vs 0.993 (95% CI, 0.990-0.995) in the unexposed group after 9 months (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, indirect exposure to live attenuated poliovirus was associated with decreased symptomatic infection with COVID-19. Further study of the potential protective effect of OPV should be conducted, especially in nations where OPV is already in use for polio prevention and specific COVID-19 vaccines are delayed, less affordable, or fail to meet demand.